Uri Benzion, Lena Krupalnik, Ahron Rosenfeld, Shosh Shahrabani, Tal Shavit (2012) “The effect of short-term information on long-term investment: An experimental study."Economics Letters, Volume 116, Issue 1, July 2012, Pages 20–22. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.01.003. ****.
notes by yinung
其它的 MLA 實驗文獻都著重在投資期間短/長, 和報酬資訊迴饋高/低 對風險資產持有意願之影響, 這篇的實驗是比較同樣是 8 期一次決定的 “長期" 投資決策, 可是 treatment 是有沒有報酬資訊迴饋 (8期都有, 或是都沒有), 結果發現:
- 沒有資訊下的 “長期投資" > 有資訊下的 “長期投資"
- 有資訊下: After “aggregate loss" 的 “長期投資" < After “aggregate gain " 的 “長期投資" (這好像是 house money effects)
- 無資訊下: After “aggregate loss" 的 “長期投資" ~= After “aggregate gain " 的 “長期投資"
[They] found that when the investment horizon was three periods, feedback frequency had no effect on the allocation to the
risky asset. …
(1) individuals tend to rely on small samples of past experiences for decision-making, which leads them to chase after past returns in the financial markets (Barron and Erev, 2003; Chevalier and Ellison, 1997; Sirri and Tufano, 1998).
We present a multi-trial experiment that extends the classic experiment of Thaler et al. (1997) by adding short-term information to long-term investment. The allocation to the risky asset is reduced in the long-term, when we add short-term information.
► We test experimentally how short-term returns’ information affects long-term investment. ► In two treatments, subjects allocated funds between two assets for eight periods in advance. ► In treatment 1, subjects received information about the aggregate and each period returns. ► In treatment 2, the subjects received information only about the aggregate return. ► The allocation to the risky asset is lower in treatment 1 than in treatment 2.
- Myopic loss aversion, Regret, Multi-periods