A dynamic level-k model in sequential games

Ho, Teck-Hua, and Xuanming Su. “A dynamic level-k model in sequential games." Management Science 59.2 (2013): 452-469. berkeley.edu 提供的 [PDF]

Abstract

Backward induction is a widely accepted principle for predicting behavior in sequential games. In the classic example of the “centipede game,” however, players frequently violate this principle. An alternative is a “dynamic level-k” model, where players choose a rule from a rule hierarchy. The rule hierarchy is iteratively defined such that the level-k rule is a best response to the level-(k-1) rule, and the level- rule corresponds to backward induction. Players choose rules based on their best guesses of others’ rules and use historical plays to improve their guesses. The model captures two systematic violations of backward induction in centipede games, limited induction and repetition unraveling. Because the dynamic level-k model always converges to backward induction over repetition, the former can be considered to be a tracing procedure for the latter. We also examine the generalizability of the dynamic level-k model by applying it to explain systematic violations of backward induction in sequential bargaining games. We show that the same model is capable of capturing these violations in two separate bargaining experiments.

==see also==

  • Camerer, C. and Ho, T-H “Behavioral Game Theory Experiments and Modeling," In Handbook of Game Theory, Forthcoming. PDF File provided by berkeley
  • Ho, T-H. “Individual Learning in Games," Blume, L. and Durlauf, S. (eds.) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics: Design of Experiments and Behavioral Economics, Palgrave Macmillian, 2008. PDF File
  • Camerer, C. Ho, T-H. and Chong,J-K. “Models of Thinking, Learning, and Teaching in Games," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 93: 2 (2003), 192-195. PDF File
  • Camerer, C., Ho, T-H, and Chong, J-K. “Behavioral Game Theory: Thinking, Learning and Teaching," Paper Presented at the Nobel Prize Symposium (Dec 2001). PDF File
  • 這篇和選美賽局 beauty contest 有關
    Ho, T-H., Camerer, C., and Weigelt, K., “Iterated Dominance and Iterated Best Response in Experimental P-Beauty Contests," The American Economic Review, 88 (1998), 947-969. PDF File
  • Ho, T-H. and Weigelt, K., “Task Complexity, Equilibrium Selection, and Learning: An Experimental Study," Management Science, 42 (1996), 659-679. PDF File
  • Ho, T-H. and K. Weigelt, “Trust Building Among Strangers," Management Science , 51: 4, pp. 1-12, 2005. [Lead Article] [Finalist, John D. C. Little Best Paper Award]. PDF File

Sabotage in Tournaments: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

yinung: 哈哈… 怠工 (工作偷懶) 行為被標籤化, 可以降低怠工?
Christine Harbring and Bernd Irlenbusch (2011) “Sabotage in Tournaments: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," Management Science, 57, 4 :611-627.; DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1100.1296 ; (full PDF)

==original Abstract==

Although relative performance schemes are pervasive in organizations, reliable empirical data on induced sabotage behavior are almost nonexistent. We study sabotage (怠工,破壞活動,破壞(vi.)從事破壞活動(vt.)妨害,破壞) in repeated tournaments in a controlled laboratory experiment and observe that effort and sabotage are higher for higher wage spreads. Additionally, we find that also in the presence of tournament incentives, agents react reciprocally to higher wages by exerting higher effort. Destructive activities are reduced by explicitly calling them by their name “sabotage.” Communication among principal and agents can curb sabotage when they agree on flat prize structures and increased output. If sabotage is not possible, the principals choose tournament incentives more often.

 ==cited by==

(2012) “Competition Between Organizational Groups: Its Impact on Altruistic and Antisocial Motivations." Management Science May 2012 vol. 58 no. 5 948-960.

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